Border Mail Round 18 – Preview

OSBORNE

54 points, 155.53

Play Murray Magpies

Assured of the minor premiership unless Murray Magpies can pull off the upset of the century. There is more chance of winning lotto considering the Magpies have won one quarter all season.

Best case: First

Worst case: Third

CULCAIRN

52 points, 169.19

Play Lockhart

The stakes don’t come any higher during the home and away season with a top-two finish still up for grabs. History says it’s almost Mission Impossible to win four straight finals with Jindera the last club to accomplish the feat in 2011. Culcairn has two percentage points over Brock-Burrum which is roughly the equivalent of two goals if both sides concede the similar amount of points. Where it starts to get tricky is the more goals you concede, the worse off your percentage despite the winning margin being the same. Below is an example of both Culcairn and Brock-Burrum winning by 50 and 61 points respectively.

Example 1:

Culcairn 100 def Lockhart 50 170.61%

Brock-Burrum 100 def Howlong 39 170.47%

Example 2:

Culcairn 120 def Lockhart 70 169.33%

Brock-Burrum 100 def Howlong 39 170.47%

As you can see both clubs will have the calculators handy on Saturday with every point scored against being the most crucial factor.

Best case: First

Worst case: Third

BROCK-BURRUM

52 points, 167.04

Play Howlong

The Saints looked destined for a top-two finish all season but a shock loss to RWW Giants last weekend has left the door ajar for Culcairn. Basically the Saints need to defeat Howlong by two goals more than Culcairn defeats Lockhart while conceding a similar amount of points. (See example above)

Best case: First

Worst case: Third

IN OTHER NEWS

• Sam Rowe to play 100th AFL match 13 years after being drafted
• Simpson signs with O and M club for next 3 years
• Power gets their strike to avoid a winless season

RWW GIANTS

40 points, 137.23

Play Jindera

The Giants were fighting for their finals survival last week but produced one of the upsets of the season to claim the prized scalp of Brock-Burrum and secure a finals berth. Even if the Giants lose to Jindera, they can finish no worse than sixth.

Best case: Fourth

Worst case: Sixth

BILLABONG CROWS

40 points, 129.21

Play Henty

The Crows have been entrenched inside the top-six all season and virtually assured a finals berth with a hard fought win over RWW Giants in round 16. The only way the Crows can miss out on finals is if they suffer a huge loss against Henty. The Swampies need to win by around 11 goals while keeping the Crows to around 50 points or less. With the Crows destiny in their own hands, they could flood their back line if the need arises.

Best case: Fourth

Worst case: Eighth

HOLBROOK

38 points, 118.77

Play CDHBU

The Brookers have been walking the finals tightrope since round six but now only have to defeat the tenth-placed CDHBU to book a finals spot. It’s hard to see the Power springing an upset with the Brookers at home.

Best case: Fourth

Worst case: Eighth

HOWLONG

36 points, 122.35

Play Brock-Burrum

Howlong looked dead and buried as a finals contender but a round 15 win against Billabong Crows has given it a glimmer of hope. The Spiders need to upset defending premier Brock-Burrum and rely on Billabong Crows suffering a hefty defeat to sneak a finals berth. Certainly not impossible but highly unlikely.

Best case: Fourth

Worst case: Eighth

HENTY

36 points, 116.20

Play Billabong Crows

The Swampies might have to pack the rosary beads and pray for a thumping win over Billabong Crows. Joel Price’s charges need to win by around 11 goals and keep the Crows to around 50 points or less. On their best form, the Swampies would give themselves a huge chance. But after only beating CDHBU by four goals last week, the Swampies shot themselves in the foot and missed out on vital percentage.

Best case: Sixth

Worst case: Eighth